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Odell Beckham Jr. Next Team Minnesota 96% ▲+93Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los? Spider (again) 94% ▲+61Cleveland vs Chicago WS: First 5 Innings Cleveland 92% ▲+53Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by Virginia… Sandy Scott 5.4% ▼−42OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 166 T tokens 47% ▼−37Preston vs Grubor Janae Preston 86% ▲+37Game 3: Cleveland vs Chicago WS Cleveland 82% ▲+33Mattioli vs Soke Duru Soke 82% ▲+33Reasco Gonzalez vs Sholokhova Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez 76% ▲+27Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? 1480+ 62% ▲+27Republican House odds hit __ by October 31? ↓ 7% 53% ▼−26South Africa Annual Inflation 2026 >5.0% 64% ▲+25Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (St… Anthropic 69% ▲+23Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Headliner… Miley Cyrus 36% ▼−21
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Iowa Governor margin of victory

Sand, 3+ pts leads at 73% (about 7 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 7, 21:24 UTC. It's up 3 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 7, 21:24 UTC
  • Sand, 3+ pts 73% +3
  • Sand, 6+ pts 57% +3
  • Sand, 9+ pts 40% +6
  • Sand, 12+ pts 24% −5
  • Sand, 15+ pts 8.3% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$2K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts

Sand, 3+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 773%

Sep 30: 71% · Oct 1: 68% · Oct 2: 68% · Oct 3: 68% · Oct 4: 71% · Oct 5: 75% · Oct 6: 73% · Oct 7: 73%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Sand, 3+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Iowa by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

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