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Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 92% ▲+91Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 96% ▲+85Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 89% ▲+81Mississippi Senate winner? Cindy Hyde-Smith 8% ▼−78Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 5-10 93% ▲+72Georgia State House winner? Democratic party 97% ▲+69Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Nov 6, 2… James Talarico 19% ▼−63Kansas Governor-Senate combo Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win 96% ▲+61Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Boebert, 1+ pts 5.2% ▼−60Shick vs Blanch Braden Shick 88% ▲+60Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democr… Democratic sweep 91% ▲+59Doldan vs Bruno Zoe Doldan 92% ▲+59North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory Murphy, 1+ pts 3% ▼−57How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? 8 96% ▲+56
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Florida's 13th District margin of victory

Luna, 1+ pts leads at 82% (about 8 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 4, 19:14 UTC. It's up 12 points in the last 24 hours.

Luna, 1+ pts 82% ▲ 12 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 4, 19:14 UTC
  • Luna, 1+ pts 82% +12
  • Luna, 4+ pts 1.2% −61
  • Luna, 13+ pts <1% −22
  • Luna, 7+ pts <1% −39
  • Luna, 10+ pts <1% −20
  • Luna, 16+ pts <1% −2.7
  • Luna, 19+ pts <1% −5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$54K
Traded in all$57K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts

Luna, 1+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 27Nov 418%

Oct 28: 69% · Oct 29: 67% · Oct 30: 63% · Oct 31: 60% · Nov 1: 59% · Nov 2: 64% · Nov 3: 74% · Nov 4: 18%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Luna, 1+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 13th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: Florida Division of Elections

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