The odds
as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC- Chance of yes 1% −1
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$87K
Yes, 7 days−2 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 17: 3% · Oct 18: 2.5% · Oct 19: 2.5% · Oct 20: 2.5% · Oct 21: 2.5% · Oct 22: 2.5% · Oct 23: 2.5% · Oct 24: 1%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Meta releases Llama 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Settlement sources: Meta
See it on Kalshi ↗