The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before 2027 5.3% +2
- Before Sep 1, 2026 2% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$1.2M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Before 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 5.2% · Sep 29: 5.4% · Sep 30: 5.8% · Oct 1: 5.4% · Oct 2: 5.3% · Oct 3: 5.2% · Oct 4: 4.7% · Oct 5: 5.4%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Tim Walz must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Settlement sources: ABC News Australia; Bloomberg News; CNBC; CNN; Deutsche Welle; Financial Times; Fox News; MSNBC; official government records and registries; Tim Walz; Politico; Reuters; the Associated Press; the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held; the New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; The Washington Post; BBC
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