The odds
as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC- Above 15.5 million barrels 92% −3
- Above 16.0 million barrels 83% —
- Above 16.5 million barrels 77% —
- Above 17.0 million barrels 40% —
- Above 17.5 million barrels 16% —
- Above 18.0 million barrels 6.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$73K
Favourite, 7 days−6.5 pts
Above 15.5 million barrels, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 17: 98% · Oct 18: 98% · Oct 19: 98% · Oct 20: 98% · Oct 21: 98% · Oct 22: 98% · Oct 23: 95% · Oct 24: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 15.5 million barrels; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Kentucky Distillers’ Association reports that the number of Bourbon barrels aging in Kentucky as of January 1, 2026 was above 15.5 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the statewide Bourbon barrel inventory derived from inventories submitted by Kentucky distilleries and warehousing companies to the Kentucky Department of Revenue. Only barrels containing Bourbon will count; barrels containing other aging spirits will not. The January 1, 2025 figures, for example, were 16.1M Bourbon barrels versus 17.1M total barrels of all aging spirits.
Settlement sources: Kentucky Distillers’ Association
See it on Kalshi ↗