The odds
as of Oct 16, 19:20 UTC- Chance of yes 6.5% −5
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$27K
Yes, 7 days+3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 9: 3.5% · Oct 10: 3.5% · Oct 11: 3.5% · Oct 12: 3.5% · Oct 13: 3.5% · Oct 14: 10% · Oct 15: 11% · Oct 16: 6.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf USDA NASS reports that Idaho’s potato production for 2026 is above 138.38 million cwt, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the total Idaho potato production for the 2026 crop year, measured in hundredweight (cwt), as reported by USDA NASS. One cwt equals 100 pounds. The market concerns total production, not acreage, yield, value of production, or potato stocks. Resolution is based on the first USDA NASS publication reporting the 2026 Idaho production estimate; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
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