The odds
as of Oct 23, 02:33 UTC- October 21 27% +6
- October 19 14% −2
- October 23 14% —
- October 24 14% —
- October 25 14% —
- October 20 6.5% +1
- October 22 5.5% —
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
October 21, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 16: 14% · Oct 17: 14% · Oct 18: 14% · Oct 19: 14% · Oct 20: 14% · Oct 21: 20% · Oct 22: 28% · Oct 23: 27%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, October 21; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Oct 21, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗