The odds
as of Oct 29, 03:22 UTC- October 29 26% +9.5
- November 1 18% —
- October 31 17% —
- October 26 15% +3
- October 30 14% —
- October 27 3.5% −2
- October 28 2.5% −11
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+11 pts
October 29, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 14% · Oct 24: 14% · Oct 25: 14% · Oct 26: 14% · Oct 27: 16% · Oct 28: 16% · Oct 29: 26%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, October 29; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Oct 29, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗