The odds
as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC- Before January 21, 2029 18% −6
- Before 2027 3.9% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$3.5M
Favourite, 7 days−4.5 pts
Before January 21, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 26% · Sep 30: 23% · Oct 1: 22% · Oct 2: 20% · Oct 3: 21% · Oct 4: 22% · Oct 5: 22% · Oct 6: 19%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before January 21, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗