The odds
as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC- Before January 20, 2029 12% +3
- Before 2027 3.3% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$960
Traded in all$5.1M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Before January 20, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 12% · Sep 29: 12% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 12% · Oct 4: 13% · Oct 5: 12%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before January 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗