The odds
as of Nov 4, 17:15 UTC- Sarasota 96% +5
- Seminole 47% +24
- Duval 28% +23
- Osceola 12% +1
- Hillsborough 5% −34
- Miami-Dade 1.5% −26
- St. Lucie 1.5% −51
- Pinellas 1% −7
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$28K
Traded in all$45K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts
Sarasota, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 92% · Oct 28: 89% · Oct 29: 88% · Oct 30: 88% · Nov 2: 79% · Nov 3: 97% · Nov 4: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Sarasota; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election in Sarasota County, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Division of Elections, Office of the Secretary of State, Tallahassee, FL
See it on Kalshi ↗