The odds
as of Nov 2, 01:18 UTC- Chance of yes 13% —
Traded today$704
Traded in all$28K
Yes, 7 days−4 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 25: 17% · Oct 26: 17% · Oct 27: 12% · Oct 28: 12% · Oct 29: 12% · Oct 30: 13% · Oct 31: 13%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the value added by Manufacturing to GDP in Q4 2028 is at least 13.1% (the value it was in Q1 2005), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: BEA
See it on Kalshi ↗