The odds
as of Oct 30, 23:14 UTC- Above 0.0% 96% —
- Above 0.5% 91% —
- Above 1.0% 91% —
- Above 1.5% 89% +13
- Above 2.0% 76% −3
- Above 2.5% 65% +13
- Above 3.0% 50% +19
- Above 3.5% 25% +4
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$63K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Above 0.0%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 94% · Oct 24: 94% · Oct 25: 93% · Oct 26: 93% · Oct 27: 91% · Oct 28: 91% · Oct 29: 95% · Oct 30: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 0.0%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis
See it on Kalshi ↗