The odds
as of Oct 8, 02:37 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2028 48% −4
- Before Sep 1, 2027 41% —
- Before April 1, 2027 20% —
- Before 2027 18% −2
- Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$405K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 42% · Oct 2: 46% · Oct 3: 48% · Oct 4: 48% · Oct 5: 49% · Oct 6: 49% · Oct 7: 44% · Oct 8: 43%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗