The odds
as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2028 42% +1
- Before Aug 1, 2027 27% —
- Before Apr 1, 2027 15% +2
- Before Jan 1, 2027 11% +3
- Before Nov 3, 2026 2.5% +1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$69K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts
Before Jan 1, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 45% · Oct 3: 45% · Oct 4: 44% · Oct 5: 44% · Oct 6: 45% · Oct 8: 44% · Oct 9: 42%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Fox News; MSNBC; The Wall Street Journal; Semafor; ABC; The Information; CBS; The New York Times; The Washington Post; Axios; CNN; Reuters; the Associated Press; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗