The odds
as of Oct 28, 19:16 UTC- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 50% —
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 30% —
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 12% —
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 0 5.5% —
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0 1.5% —
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 1% —
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 48% · Oct 28: 50%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If ALL of the following occur for Dec 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
See it on Kalshi ↗