The odds
as of Nov 3, 19:14 UTC- Nebraska US Senate 63% −4
- Texas US Senate 37% +5
Traded today$15K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+22 pts
Nebraska US Senate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 42% · Oct 28: 42% · Oct 29: 42% · Oct 30: 59% · Oct 31: 54% · Nov 1: 55% · Nov 2: 66% · Nov 3: 63%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Nebraska US Senate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Nebraska US Senate has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Nebraska US Senate and Texas US Senate as of Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options.
Settlement sources: Nebraska Secretary of State; Texas Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗