The odds
as of Oct 9, 10:28 UTC- Maintain current rate 94% +3
- Hike 25bps 6.5% −2
- Cut more than 25bps 1% —
- Cut 25bps 1% —
- Hike more than 25bps 1% —
Traded today$782
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+9.5 pts
Maintain current rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 86% · Oct 3: 82% · Oct 4: 87% · Oct 5: 90% · Oct 6: 94% · Oct 7: 95% · Oct 8: 95% · Oct 9: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Settlement sources: Bank of Japan; Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗