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KalshiCloses October 29, 2026

European Central Bank rate decision in October

Maintain current rate leads at 91% (about 9 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 6, 06:41 UTC. It's down 3 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 06:41 UTC
  • Maintain current rate 91% −3
  • Hike 1-25bps 8% +1
  • Cut 1-25bps 4% —
  • Cut more than 25bps 3% —
  • Hike more than 25bps 2% —
Traded today$560
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+20 pts

Maintain current rate, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 691%

Sep 29: 74% · Sep 30: 86% · Oct 1: 90% · Oct 2: 95% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 93% · Oct 5: 95% · Oct 6: 91%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the European Central Bank takes the action of Maintain current rate at October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).

Settlement sources: European Central Bank; Trading Economics

See it on Kalshi ↗

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