The odds
as of Oct 10, 15:23 UTC- At least 60% 88% −1
- At least 65% 86% —
- At least 70% 72% +4
- At least 75% 51% +3
- At least 77% 33% —
- At least 80% 15% −4
- At least 85% 6.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days−6 pts
At least 60%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 95% · Oct 5: 94% · Oct 6: 95% · Oct 7: 95% · Oct 8: 89% · Oct 9: 89% · Oct 10: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 60%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 60% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Alberta should remain a province of Canada) on Question 10 of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum, as reported in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results. Preliminary results do not qualify. Valid votes are votes for either Question 10 option; blank and rejected ballots are excluded. Rounding follows Elections Alberta’s reported convention. If no qualifying results are released by expiration, the market resolves to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange.
Settlement sources: Elections Alberta
See it on Kalshi ↗