The odds
as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC- Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats 33% +6
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Republicans 18% —
- Lula, Netanyahu, Democrats 15% —
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Republicans 3% —
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Democrats 3% —
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Democrats 1% —
- Bolsonaro, Bennett, Democrats 1% —
- Lula, Eizenkot, Republicans 1% −7
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+21 pts
Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 14% · Oct 29: 19% · Oct 30: 20% · Oct 31: 19% · Nov 1: 21% · Nov 2: 29% · Nov 3: 27% · Nov 4: 33%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If ALL of the following occur: Brazil President: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Israel Prime Minister: Gadi Eizenkot, U.S. Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Brazil President (BRPRES), Israel Prime Minister (GOVHEAD), U.S. Senate Control (CONTROL). All conditions must be satisfied before Oct 27, 2027. The CONTROL component may resolve on an accelerated basis as outlined in the full rules. Each component resolves the same way as its Kalshi market: Brazil Presidential election winner, Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election and Which party will win the U.S. Senate?.
Settlement sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral; The Knesset; Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗