Oct 19: 36% · Oct 20: 35% · Oct 21: 38% · Oct 22: 36% · Oct 23: 35% · Oct 24: 39% · Oct 25: 39% · Oct 26: 37%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Florida; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Florida is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Donald Trump's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Trump won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Republican. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority. An unlisted qualifying state with the highest margin, or no qualifying state, makes every named market resolve NO.
Settlement sources: Federal Election Commission; Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division; Delaware Department of Elections; Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division; Rhode Island Board of Elections; Colorado Secretary of State; Illinois State Board of Elections; Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections; New Mexico Secretary of State, Elections Division; New Jersey Division of Elections; Virginia Department of Elections; Minnesota Secretary of State; New Hampshire Secretary of State; Michigan Secretary of State; Georgia Secretary of State; North Carolina State Board of Elections; Ohio Secretary of State; the Florida Division of Elections; Alaska Division of Elections; Iowa Secretary of State; Texas Secretary of State