The odds
as of Oct 14, 10:25 UTC- Above 150 96% —
- Above 160 90% —
- Above 170 87% —
- Above 180 68% −5
- Above 190 44% −9
- Above 200 33% —
- Above 210 17% —
- Above 220 7% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
Above 150, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 9: 96% · Oct 10: 96% · Oct 11: 96% · Oct 12: 96% · Oct 13: 96% · Oct 14: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 150; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗