The odds
as of Oct 5, 21:23 UTC- Above 150 91% −1
- Above 175 70% −2
- Above 200 18% −8
- Above 225 4.5% +8
- Above 250 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$16K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+41 pts
Above 150, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 90% · Oct 3: 91% · Oct 4: 93% · Oct 5: 91%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 150; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗