The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- John Brennan 24% +4
- Mahmoud Khalil 17% +6
- James Clapper 11% —
- Anthony Fauci 11% —
- Loretta Lynch 8.7% —
- Letitia James 8.1% —
- Candace Owens 7.2% −1
- Benjamin Netanyahu 6.8% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$1.3M
Favourite, 7 days−3.5 pts
John Brennan, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 26% · Sep 29: 24% · Sep 30: 27% · Oct 1: 24% · Oct 2: 21% · Oct 3: 23% · Oct 4: 24% · Oct 5: 23%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, John Brennan; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If John Brennan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
Settlement sources: CNBC; law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC
See it on Kalshi ↗