The odds
as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC- Before Apr 1, 2028 57% −3
- Before Jan 1, 2028 48% −6
- Before Jul 1, 2027 24% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$39K
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
Before Apr 1, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 56% · Oct 29: 56% · Oct 30: 58% · Oct 31: 56% · Nov 1: 56% · Nov 2: 56% · Nov 3: 54% · Nov 4: 55%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Apr 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for Senate in 2028 before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Note: FEC filings alone do not resolve this market to Yes.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; Bloomberg News; NBC
See it on Kalshi ↗