The odds
as of Oct 29, 21:17 UTC- At least 75 million 96% —
- At least 80 million 96% —
- At least 85 million 95% —
- At least 90 million 50% +20
- At least 95 million 25% +14
- At least 100 million 12% —
- At least 105 million 14% —
- At least 110 million 13% −2
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$738
Traded in all$39K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
At least 75 million, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 22: 97% · Oct 23: 96% · Oct 24: 96% · Oct 25: 96% · Oct 26: 96% · Oct 27: 96% · Oct 28: 96% · Oct 29: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 75 million; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 75 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Alaska Department of Fish and Game
See it on Kalshi ↗