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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

The market puts it at 11% — a long shot, about one in 10 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 12, 16:28 UTC.

Yes 11%

The odds

as of Oct 12, 16:28 UTC
  • Chance of yes 11% —
Traded today$831
Traded in all$281K
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 4Oct 1211%

Oct 5: 11% · Oct 6: 11% · Oct 7: 11% · Oct 8: 11% · Oct 9: 11% · Oct 10: 11% · Oct 11: 11% · Oct 12: 11%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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