Moving
Critics Choice Awards: Best Foreign Language Film La Bola Negra 12% ▼−42NLCS MVP Winner William Contreras 43% ▲+40Hopp vs Breazu Matei Florin Breazu 88% ▲+40Steam: Weekly Top Seller STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™ 35% ▼−38Baycurrent Classic: Top 20 Finishers Michael Kim 72% ▲+38Filip vs Walters Jakub Filip 84% ▲+36Sri Lanka Emerging Players vs BBK Partnership BBK Partnership 37% ▲+33Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia: Set 2 Winner Juan Manuel Cerundolo 95% ▲+33Vales vs Geladaris Amit Vales 78% ▲+30RED Canids vs. FlyQuest FlyQuest 80% ▲+30Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner Tito-Dante Marimpietri 79% ▲+28Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI… October 31 62% ▲+28Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? Elon Musk 92% ▲+27OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 166 T tokens 42% ▲+27
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?

The market puts it at 24% — about 2 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 8, 09:31 UTC. It's up 2.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 24% ▲ 2.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 09:31 UTC
  • Chance of yes 24% +2.5
Traded today$512
Traded in all$235K
Yes, 7 days−1.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 824%

Oct 1: 21% · Oct 2: 21% · Oct 3: 21% · Oct 4: 21% · Oct 5: 20% · Oct 6: 20% · Oct 7: 22% · Oct 8: 24%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kupyansjk-Vuzlovij railroad station located between Zaliznychna Vulytsia and Zaliznychnykiv Ploshcha (49.654359° N, 37.644326° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+1.png Train Station Location in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+2.png Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/2DWkLwtmD3dTUGbc8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →