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PolymarketCloses October 31, 2026

Will Iran target Egypt by...?

The market puts it at 14% — a long shot, about one in 7 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 22, 01:32 UTC. It's up 11 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 14% ▲ 11 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 22, 01:32 UTC
  • Chance of yes 14% +11
Traded today$813
Traded in all$32K
Yes, 7 days+12 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 14Oct 2213%

Oct 15: 1% · Oct 16: 2.1% · Oct 17: 2.1% · Oct 18: 1.8% · Oct 19: 2.1% · Oct 20: 3.2% · Oct 21: 7.5% · Oct 22: 13%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Egypt through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Cairo time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Egypt. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Egypt if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Egypt, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Cairo time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Egypt and a consensus of credible reporting.
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