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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 31 leads at 23% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 14, 17:21 UTC. It's up 8.5 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 23% ▲ 8.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 14, 17:21 UTC
  • December 31 23% +8.5
  • October 31 7% +2.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$7K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days−7.5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 12Oct 1422%

Oct 12: 13% · Oct 13: 14% · Oct 14: 22%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, cause, or attribution of relevant cable damage, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, cause, and attribution of the damage based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the damage. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, cause, or attribution of the damage, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution source for this market will be credible reporting.
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