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PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

DeepSeek leads at 31% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC
  • DeepSeek 31% —
  • Xiaomi 21% —
  • Moonshot AI 20% +8
  • ByteDance 17% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$2K
Traded in all$103K
Favourite, 7 daysunch

DeepSeek, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 631%

Sep 29: 31% · Sep 30: 31% · Oct 1: 31% · Oct 2: 31% · Oct 3: 31% · Oct 4: 31% · Oct 5: 31% · Oct 6: 31%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
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