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PolymarketCloses November 4, 2026

Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Democratic Party leads at 84% (about 8 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 31, 19:13 UTC. It's up 4 points in the last 24 hours.

Democratic Party 84% ▲ 4 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 31, 19:13 UTC
  • Democratic Party 84% +4
  • Republican Party 9.5% −3.5
  • Tie 5.8% −0.7
Traded today$14K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+10 pts

Democratic Party, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 23Oct 3187%

Oct 24: 74% · Oct 25: 75% · Oct 26: 71% · Oct 27: 74% · Oct 28: 77% · Oct 29: 81% · Oct 30: 81% · Oct 31: 87%

The same question on Kalshi

Polymarket84%Democratic Party
level
Kalshi84%Democratic Party →

Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 31, 19:13 UTC.

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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