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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 31 leads at 82% (about 8 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 30, 23:14 UTC. It's up 4 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 82% ▲ 4 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 30, 23:14 UTC
  • December 31 82% +4
  • October 31 18% −3.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$5K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+9.5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 23Oct 3082%

Oct 23: 72% · Oct 24: 69% · Oct 25: 81% · Oct 26: 79% · Oct 27: 86% · Oct 28: 85% · Oct 29: 78% · Oct 30: 82%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. "U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity. An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named. “Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify. A qualifying anti-cartel operation refers to an operation in which U.S. personnel are physically present as part of the force directly engaging cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force carrying out or attempting a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Such presence qualifies regardless of whether U.S. personnel themselves enter the target site or carry out the action. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count unless the requirement for physical presence at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force conducting the qualifying action is met. Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel target located on foreign soil. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Kinetic actions that consist primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying kinetic action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is material…
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