The odds
as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC- Unusual Machines 48% −6.5
- Anduril 19% +3.5
- Micron 17% +3
- Anthropic 17% +0.5
- TSMC 16% +1
- IonQ 15% +1.5
- Nvidia 14% —
- OpenAI 13% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$654
Traded in all$196K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Unusual Machines, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 51% · Sep 29: 54% · Sep 30: 42% · Oct 1: 44% · Oct 2: 53% · Oct 3: 56% · Oct 4: 53% · Oct 5: 49%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗