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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines leads at 48% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC. It's down 6.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC
  • Unusual Machines 48% −6.5
  • Anduril 19% +3.5
  • Micron 17% +3
  • Anthropic 17% +0.5
  • TSMC 16% +1
  • IonQ 15% +1.5
  • Nvidia 14% —
  • OpenAI 13% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$654
Traded in all$196K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts

Unusual Machines, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 549%

Sep 28: 51% · Sep 29: 54% · Sep 30: 42% · Oct 1: 44% · Oct 2: 53% · Oct 3: 56% · Oct 4: 53% · Oct 5: 49%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
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