The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- OpenAI 16% −0.5
- xAI 12% −0.5
- Meta 9.5% —
- Z.ai 7.5% —
- Alibaba 6.5% —
- Baidu 6.5% —
- DeepSeek 5.5% —
- Microsoft 4.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$640
Traded in all$201K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts
OpenAI, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 18% · Sep 29: 18% · Sep 30: 18% · Oct 1: 15% · Oct 2: 16% · Oct 3: 16% · Oct 4: 16% · Oct 5: 16%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
See it on Polymarket ↗