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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

The market puts it at 2.9% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Oct 16, 07:26 UTC. It's up 0.7 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 2.9% ▲ 0.7 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 16, 07:26 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.9% +0.7
Traded today$637
Traded in all$178K
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 8Oct 163%

Oct 9: 2.5% · Oct 10: 2.5% · Oct 11: 2.5% · Oct 12: 2.5% · Oct 13: 2.5% · Oct 14: 2.4% · Oct 15: 2.4% · Oct 16: 3%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means. An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
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