The odds
as of Oct 5, 15:27 UTC- Chance of yes 4.6% −2
Traded today$607
Traded in all$120K
Yes, 7 days−2.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 6.7% · Sep 29: 6.7% · Sep 30: 6.8% · Oct 1: 6.9% · Oct 2: 6.6% · Oct 3: 5.9% · Oct 4: 6.7% · Oct 5: 4.6%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
See it on Polymarket ↗