The odds
as of Oct 11, 17:22 UTC- 43.0 to 45.9 53% +15
- 46.0 to 48.9 47% +11
- 52.0 to 54.9 2.2% −13
- 55.0+ 1.1% −1.5
- 49.0 to 51.9 <1% −2.6
- 40.0 to 42.9 <1% −3
- <40.0 <1% −1.4
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+39 pts
43.0 to 45.9, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 4: 17% · Oct 5: 20% · Oct 6: 14% · Oct 7: 17% · Oct 8: 23% · Oct 9: 41% · Oct 10: 36% · Oct 11: 53%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for October 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for October 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for October 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on October 23, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
See it on Polymarket ↗