The odds
as of Oct 31, 07:15 UTC- Dems TX & KS, Ind NE 29% +2.8
- Dems TX & KS, Reps NE 28% +6
- Reps sweep 22% +5
- Dems TX, Reps KS & NE 14% −6
- Reps TX & NE, Dems KS 5% −12
- Dems TX, Reps KS, Ind NE 4.6% —
- Reps TX, Dems KS, Ind NE <1% —
- Reps TX & KS, Ind NE <1% —
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+22 pts
Dems TX & KS, Ind NE, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 24: 6.4% · Oct 25: 11% · Oct 26: 18% · Oct 27: 18% · Oct 28: 16% · Oct 29: 27% · Oct 30: 31% · Oct 31: 29%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
Because no Democratic candidate is on the ballot in Nebraska, the Nebraska race is represented by “Republican” and “Independent” (Ind) options. The “Independent” option refers to a win by a candidate running as an independent in the Nebraska Senate election. For purposes of this market, Dan Osborn will be considered to be an Independent regardless of any affiliation that he may have with any party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins the Texas or Kansas election, or a third-party candidate wins the Nebraska election, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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