The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Ursula von der Leyen 34% +5.5
- Mark Rutte 24% +12
- Emmanuel Macron 19% −0.5
- Mark Carney 13% +2
- António Guterres 13% +2.5
- JD Vance 7.2% —
- Donald Trump 4.7% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$723
Traded in all$561K
Favourite, 7 days−25 pts
Ursula von der Leyen, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 39% · Sep 29: 39% · Sep 30: 36% · Oct 1: 30% · Oct 2: 33% · Oct 3: 33% · Oct 4: 35% · Oct 5: 34%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗