The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Chance of yes 1.8% −4.7
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$26K
Yes, 7 days−11 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 11% · Sep 29: 11% · Sep 30: 12% · Oct 1: 9.5% · Oct 2: 7.5% · Oct 3: 7.5% · Oct 4: 6.5% · Oct 5: 1.9%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗