The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Aaron Ford (D) 52% −3
- Joe Lombardo (R) 49% +2
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$261K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
Aaron Ford (D), the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 48% · Sep 29: 48% · Sep 30: 49% · Oct 1: 49% · Oct 2: 49% · Oct 3: 54% · Oct 4: 52% · Oct 5: 52%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
See it on Polymarket ↗