The odds
as of Oct 12, 06:58 UTC- Kyle Larson 46% +3.5
- Denny Hamlin 17% −10
- Christopher Bell 13% +3
- Chase Briscoe 9.9% +7
- Ryan Blaney 5.9% —
- Joey Logano 4.8% −0.8
- Ty Gibbs 1.4% —
- Chase Elliott 1.1% —
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$65K
Favourite, 7 days−2.8 pts
Kyle Larson, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 5: 45% · Oct 6: 42% · Oct 7: 43% · Oct 8: 42% · Oct 9: 41% · Oct 10: 42% · Oct 11: 45% · Oct 12: 46%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 12, 06:58 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by NASCAR to determine the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on the rules of NASCAR (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASCAR.
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