The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- Below 3.90% 5.3% —
- Below 4.00% 7.8% +2.7
- Below 4.10% 7% +1
- Below 4.20% 17% −4.5
- Below 4.30% 41% —
- Below 4.40% 62% −0.5
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$37K
Favourite, 7 days+18 pts
Below 4.40%, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 31: 44% · Nov 1: 40% · Nov 2: 42% · Nov 3: 42% · Nov 4: 54% · Nov 5: 58% · Nov 6: 69% · Nov 7: 63%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
See it on Polymarket ↗