The odds
as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC- Below 1.0% 1.4% —
- Below 3.6% 1.4% —
- Below 3.7% 1.3% —
- Below 3.8% 1.9% +1
- Below 3.9% 2.2% —
- Below 4.1% 3.3% —
- Below 4.2% 3.1% —
- Below 4.3% 4% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$345K
Favourite, 7 days−9 pts
Below 4.7%, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 29: 23% · Sep 30: 23% · Oct 1: 22% · Oct 2: 22% · Oct 3: 22% · Oct 4: 14% · Oct 5: 14% · Oct 6: 14%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
See it on Polymarket ↗