The odds
as of Oct 20, 15:24 UTC- 5.32% 12% −1.6
- 5.35% 8% −9
- 5.38% 5.5% −5.5
- 5.41% 8.5% +0.5
- 5.45% 5% −2.5
- 5.50% 4.7% −2
- 5.55% 3.9% —
- 5.60% 2.2% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$973
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days−58 pts
5.32%, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 13: 54% · Oct 14: 38% · Oct 15: 13% · Oct 16: 17% · Oct 17: 17% · Oct 18: 14% · Oct 19: 14% · Oct 20: 12%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
See it on Polymarket ↗