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PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut?

A ladder on one number: the likeliest rung is 1430+ at 80% on Polymarket, as of Oct 25, 13:20 UTC. It's up 2.5 points in the last 24 hours.

1430+ 80% ▲ 2.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 25, 13:20 UTC
  • 1430+ 80% +2.5
  • 1440+ 51% +9.5
  • 1450+ 34% −7.5
  • 1460+ 28% −9
  • 1470+ 22% −1

A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$6K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−12 pts

1430+, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2580%

Oct 21: 84% · Oct 22: 88% · Oct 23: 88% · Oct 24: 77% · Oct 25: 80%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Settlement sources: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

See it on Polymarket ↗

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