The odds
as of Oct 25, 01:34 UTC- Claude 83% −4
- ChatGPT 10% +2
- GLM 2% —
- Gemini 2% —
- Qwen 1% −1
- Grok 1% −3
- Dola 1% −3
- Kimi 1% −3
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$36K
Favourite, 7 days−8 pts
Claude, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 18: 55% · Oct 19: 88% · Oct 20: 88% · Oct 21: 94% · Oct 22: 92% · Oct 23: 59% · Oct 24: 75% · Oct 25: 82%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Claude; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: LMArena Code
See it on Kalshi ↗