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PolymarketCloses December 1, 2026

Gemini Argon released by...?

November 30 leads at 92% (about 9 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 11, 03:34 UTC.

November 30 92%

The odds

as of Oct 11, 03:34 UTC
  • November 30 92% —
  • October 31 83% +0.5
  • October 16 57% −2.5
  • October 14 41% −2.5
  • October 12 17% −14

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$4K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−1.3 pts

November 30, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 7Oct 1192%

Oct 7: 97% · Oct 8: 92% · Oct 9: 93% · Oct 10: 92% · Oct 11: 92%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Gemini Argon" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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